Super El Niño 2026: Pacific Ocean Hits All-Time Record Temperatures
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In brief
Sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific's Niño 3.4 region reached the highest daily readings ever recorded in September 2026, topping the previous record set in November 2015, according to analyses of NOAA, Copernicus and other agency data. The World Meteorological Organization says the El Niño now has a near-100% probability of staying strong through February 2027, with forecasters warning it could still intensify further before peaking.
The tropical Pacific Ocean has entered what scientists and forecasters are calling a super El Niño — the strongest warm-phase event in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle on modern instrumental record. Multiple independent trackers of sea-surface temperature in the benchmark Niño 3.4 region reported new all-time highs in September 2026, surpassing the previous record set during the 2015–16 El Niño.
How hot the Pacific actually got
Climate analyst Zeke Hausfather, writing for Carbon Brief on 21 September 2026 using NOAA, Copernicus C3S, Environment and Climate Change Canada, and JAMSTEC data, reported a daily Niño 3.4 anomaly of 3.11°C above the 1991–2020 average, exceeding the prior record of 3.08°C set on 18 November 2015. Science News Explores, reporting separately on the same date, cited a reading of 3.08°C above average, topping an earlier record it listed as 3.02°C from November 2015. The two outlets used slightly different datasets and rounding, which explains the small gap between their figures, but both agree the September 2026 reading broke the 2015–16 record.
Carbon Brief's review of the August 2026 monthly average put the Niño 3.4 anomaly at roughly 2.45°C, a level exceeded only by the 2015–16 event (2.75°C) and, by some reconstructions, the 1877–78 El Niño (about 2.7°C).
Key figures at a glance
2026 Super El Niño: reported figures and their sources
Metric
Figure reported
Source & date
Niño 3.4 daily anomaly, 21 Sep 2026
3.11°C (new record, beating 3.08°C from 18 Nov 2015)
Subsurface Pacific temperatures, Jul–early Aug 2026
More than 8°C above average in some areas
World Meteorological Organization, 3 Sep 2026
Probability El Niño persists through Feb 2027
Nearly 100% likelihood
World Meteorological Organization, 3 Sep 2026
Forecast peak anomaly, Nov 2026–Jan 2027 (model range)
Median ~4.1°C; 80% of 674 model runs between 3.4°C and 4.6°C
Carbon Brief, 21 Sep 2026
Projected additional heat-related deaths by Feb 2027
450,000+
University of Chicago Climate Impact Lab, cited by Science News Explores, Sep 2026
People projected to face acute food insecurity by end of 2027
49 million more
UN World Food Programme, cited by New Statesman, Oct 2026
What the World Meteorological Organization says
In a 3 September 2026 statement, the WMO said El Niño conditions were firmly established and on track to intensify into a very strong event, with ENSO model probabilities for September–November 2026 standing at roughly 100% for El Niño, near 0% for neutral conditions and near 0% for La Niña. The agency's Secretary-General, Celeste Saulo, said the event demanded exceptional preparation and response, adding that the WMO had never before, in its 76-year history, launched as major a mobilization of national meteorological and hydrological services as it has for this event.
El Niño is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt.
— UN Secretary-General António Guterres, in the WMO's 3 September 2026 statement
Why the record matters
Because El Niño releases heat stored in the Pacific into the atmosphere, forecasters say the current event could push both 2026 and 2027 toward record-hot years globally. Science News Explores reported that the ocean heat from this event could add roughly 1.2°C to global land temperatures in the months ahead, citing NOAA climate scientist Nathaniel Johnson of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and Nathan Lenssen of the National Center for Atmospheric Research.
The New Statesman, drawing on UN World Food Programme estimates, reported the event could push 49 million additional people into acute food insecurity by the end of 2027. The same article noted that 18 Pacific hurricanes had formed in 2026, with three threatening Hawaii — compared with only six hurricanes coming within 50 miles of the islands over the preceding 70 years — while describing a markedly quiet Atlantic hurricane season by contrast.
What happens next
Forecasters expect the event to keep intensifying into the final months of 2026. Carbon Brief's model survey put the likely peak anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region around 4.1°C sometime between November 2026 and January 2027 — about 1.3°C above the previous 2015–16 record. The WMO says there is a nearly 100% probability that El Niño conditions will persist through February 2027 before a transition toward neutral or La Niña conditions is expected later in the year.
Questions
What counts as a 'super El Niño'?
Forecasters generally describe an event as a super El Niño when the Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly exceeds roughly 2°C above the 1991–2020 average, a threshold the 2026 event passed by mid-year according to WMO data.
How hot did the Pacific actually get in September 2026?
Carbon Brief reported a daily Niño 3.4 anomaly of 3.11°C above average on 21 September 2026, while Science News Explores reported 3.08°C for the same date; both figures beat the previous record set in November 2015 (reported as 3.08°C by Carbon Brief and 3.02°C by Science News Explores).
When is this El Niño expected to peak?
Carbon Brief's model survey pointed to a peak anomaly around 4.1°C sometime between November 2026 and January 2027, above the previous 2015–16 record. The WMO's 3 September 2026 statement did not publish a specific seasonal-average anomaly figure, but said conditions were on track to become very strong.
How long will the El Niño last?
The WMO said on 3 September 2026 that there was a nearly 100% probability El Niño conditions would persist through February 2027.
What global impacts are forecasters warning about?
The UN World Food Programme, cited by the New Statesman, estimated the event could push 49 million more people into acute food insecurity by the end of 2027, while the University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab, cited by Science News Explores, projected more than 450,000 additional heat-related deaths by February 2027.
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